2016 Democratic Nomination - Data Release

If you want to make your own county-level model for the 2016 Democratic nomination race, you can use my data set.

Download the Data Set

I would LOVE to hear from anyone who is using this. What does your model look like? What variables are you including? What are your predictions? What additional factors are you adding to the model that I don't have?

Send me an email and let's cooperate to learn about election prediction modeling and make the best model possible!

Also - we could fill in some of the model details, like importing the WY actual county vote totals (my data has only the number of delegates for the state convention).

If you're really nice, I might give you a copy of my real-time election results analyzer (that forecasts the state level swing based on county results). This is arguably the most useful and accurate part of the model.

Most of the variables are explained in this post

Some of the new variables aren't. I tried to square, log, and square root several key variables - so they often have "_sq" (square) in their name to indicate that.

turnout-votes - estimated turnout for that county, based on my turnout (linear regression) model.

Sanders7Day, Clinton7Day - google search trends for "Bernie Sanders" and "Hillary Clinton" for the 7 days leading up to the state election date (but not including the day itself). This is state level data.