Predicting NY 2016 Democratic Primary

I think that given the number of polls, it is likely that a purely polling based forecast will prove the most accurate for NY.

Currently Pollster has it at 56.2% Clinton / 43.8% Sanders.

My demographics models are significantly more pro-Clinton, with Clinton being at around 66%. It is possible that the truth will like somewhere in between in which case we could see a 60/40 split.

The national trend might also be important, as the national gap between Sanders and Clinton is narrowing at approximately 1%/week and is now down to 4%. So you might expect Sanders to pick up at least 1% in NY, and possibly 2-4% (as the campaign will be focused on NY).

That said, unless something major happens - Clinton should have an easy victory in NY. PredictIt agrees and gives her a 90% chance.