Crypto Bubble - Popping Take 2

As I write this the bitcoin price just hit $3223 (Bitstamp) - a mere $13 above its yearly low. Bitcoin is down 84% from its all-time high.

The short version is that things look very bearish, and nobody knows how far it will drop.

That said there are two (or three) past bitcoin bubbles (and a couple major stock market bubbles) that have had 85%-90% corrections.

It's better to have a wide ranging target (like $1100 to $3000), than a fixed one ($3000).

Bitcoin fundamentals might be broken into 1) more stable ones (ex. technology and a core of the community/network which is in it for the long term), and 2) more volatile ones. Notably the Moonies -- people who come and go based on whether the price is skyrocketing. The ICO boosters and ponzi scammers are also highly volatile.

When you break a bubble, you clean out a lot of the waste. In crypto's case we're seeing a major drop off in ICOs, ponzis, scams, idiot YouTubers (though we still have a way to go), "to the moon" investors, and alt-coins. This might leave Bitcoin fundamentally stronger at the end.

Unfortunately the SEC hasn't cracked down on ICOs and there is a still a lot of room for alt-coins to drop.