The Iron Cage and the End of Web Development

I predict that either Microsoft or Google will attempt to monopolize website development by creating a content-management-system that is linked to their search engine (includes it for searching within your site and also for searching the internet), and possibly operating system (if Microsoft does it).

It is possible that a growing push for standardization and the need to validate one's html code (due to the demands of XML - or other systems for doing a better job of sorting everything on the web using tags), and due to typical corporate practices (witness what happenned to radio), there will be a rationalization in the website development business. We will move from having millions of different types of websites to fewer and fewer.

Search engines could give a boost in their algorithm to websites whose code validates.

Most regular people aren't going to bother writing code that validates. This high level of nit-picking is only familiar to programmers.

I'm involved in the rationalization -- working on CivicSpace. I guess I see some rationalization as being ok, but it tends to creep up on you once you start the process which is scary.

Remember when the Internet had almost no commercial use at all? Things can change fast.

CMS Trust Busting

I could not agree more. I wouldn't be surprised at how quickly Google or Microsoft get rolling on some sort of CMS asap.

At the same time though I think the internet has empowered the "little people." Though these little people are being held (er...hosted) by megaservers, they are getting their ideas and fundamentals out for all to see. I guess its more a case of whether or not these new CMSs start funneling people into tighter and tighter templates where there isn't alot of room for creativity suddenly we have loads of webpages and programs that look eerily similar.

Could get interesting folks, stay tuned.

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